NBA Finals preview: Strategy to stop James, Parker could define Heat-Spurs series

Series opens 9 p.m. ET Thursday in Miami; keys to championship start here

More film, Mr. Popovich? Well, sure. Not much else to do.
By the time Thursday's Game 1 of the NBA Finals opens, the San Antonio Spurs will have been off 10 days, during which time they've been able to digest just about all they can handle when it comes to game reels of the Miami Heat.

Tony Parker has averaged a devastating 23.0 points and 7.2 assists in these NBA playoffs, and the Heat must design a strategy to stop the Spurs guard. (AP Photo)

True, the rest is good for the aged Spurs, but when a team has not played a competitive game in that long of a span, there will be rust.
And game film. Lots of game film.
"You can watch as much as you can because we've got 10 days," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. "You can watch all kinds of stuff. Enough to really screw it up."
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The time for film is past, however. On the eve of the start of the championship go-round, it’s time to get some answers to this series’ biggest questions.

Will Tony Parker keep rolling?

Over the course of these playoffs, Parker has been outstanding, averaging 23.0 points and 7.2 assists. He was especially devastating in the final two games of the Western Conference finals, scoring 26 points on 11-for-22 shooting in Game 3 and closing out the Memphis Grizzlies with 37 points on 15-for-21 shooting in Game 4.
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When Parker is breaking down the defense and getting into the lane, he causes big trouble. No player of his size is as capable of finding ways to finish at the rim. Plus, Parker has a slew of 3-point shooters should he look to kick the ball to the perimeter.
The Heat can't afford to let Parker run wild, but their point-guard defense remains a point of vulnerability. Mario Chalmers has the length to harry Parker, but not the speed to keep up with him. Backup Norris Cole figures to play more in this series because he is a better perimeter defender than Chalmers.
But watch out for LeBron James taking the assignment on Parker from time to time.

Was Game 7 a mirage for the Heat?

In Games 4-6 of the East finals, it looked like the wheels fell off for Heat star Dwyane Wade. He was just 11-for-34 from the field, and averaged only 12.0 points. For the team's No. 2 scoring option, that just can't happen.
Making matters worse was that the other member of the Heat's Big Three, Chris Bosh, was 5-for-21 in those three games, averaging 6.3 points. There was way too much pressure on James to carry the team.
In Game 7, Wade snapped out of his funk, with 21 points and nine rebounds. Bosh still struggled with his shot (3-for-13) but was much more active in the paint and had nine points with eight rebounds.
Overall, too, the Heat played the type of energetic, ball-hawking defense that has been their style all year, forcing the Indiana Pacers into 21 turnovers. Miami will need a continuance of all three aspects — Wade, Bosh and the defense — to subdue San Antonio.

Can Kawhi Leonard handle LeBron?

James will obviously win the small forward matchup. But Leonard can keep it close enough to push the Spurs to a win if he can make things difficult on James one-on-one, forcing him into mid-range jumpers rather than letting him attack the paint.
Leonard will have help — figure that forward Tiago Splitter will eagerly leave Udonis Haslem should James drive the lane — but the more Leonard can limit James individually, the better San Antonio's defense will be.
If Leonard can be an offensive threat, especially with the corner 3-pointers the Spurs love so much, he can keep the gap in the small forward battle as narrow as possible.

Which coach pulls the right levers?

One amazing aspect of the Spurs and their longevity has been their ability to recognize what each player on the roster can add to the mix, and getting that player to contribute. They don't ask guys like Danny Green or Matt Bonner to do things they can't do, but allow them to focus on what they do well.
Bringing it all together is Popovich, who is a master at putting his guys into situations in which they can succeed.
Popovich's rotation can go as much as 11 players deep, and he will use each guy depending on how the matchup is going. If he needs floor spacing, for example, he inserts Bonner as a big man, but will use Splitter for his defense or Boris Diaw for his post passing.
Spoelstra doesn't have as many options, and he enters The Finals a little unsure of what he might get out of important players, including Shane Battier, who was benched for Game 7 of the East finals.
Both coaches will be on the spot over the course of the series, but Popovich is entering with more confidence in his guys.

Who wins the paint?

The Spurs took care of the Grizzlies mostly because they were able to make life difficult for big man Zach Randolph, who averaged 11.0 points on 30.2 percent shooting. The Heat, meanwhile, wound up going seven games in their series mostly because they couldn't handle the Pacers' size. Indiana outrebounded the Heat by nearly five per game.
During the regular season, though, the Pacers were the NBA's best rebounding team. San Antonio was 19th, and though the big-guy combination of Splitter and Tim Duncan gives the Spurs an inside advantage over the Heat, that edge will not be as pronounced as it was in the conference finals.
The Heat must give Duncan a variety of defenders (Haslem, Bosh, Chris Andersen, the "Birdman"), but Duncan's offense is more perimeter-oriented than Roy Hibbert's had been. The Spurs will win the paint, but they won't be able to dominate the Heat inside way the Pacers did.

Prediction

There is a culture-clash aspect to this series that will make it entertaining and very much worth watching.
The Spurs are too good and too deep for the Heat to be able to afford to have Wade and Bosh struggle as they did against the Pacers, but the guess here is both have snapped out of their slumps and will be useful in this series.
If that's the case, the Heat's Big Three will prove too much, and they'll land their second consecutive title.